How Meat Signal Works
Every price and signal we publish is built from the same pipeline: transparent data, a tested model, and verifiable accuracy. Here is exactly how it comes together.
Data Sources
USDA AMS weekly reports, 7+ years of historical data (2019–2026), and 57+ variables per product — from price lags and momentum to seasonality, supply, and cross-species correlations.
Price Signals
BUY / WATCH / HOLD signals based on z-score vs the 52-week range, price momentum, and seasonality. Every signal is explainable — you can see why it fired.
Forecast Model
XGBoost regression with a mean absolute percentage error of 6.7% for beef and 8.2% for pork. The model is retrained monthly as new market data arrives.
BUY Signal Accuracy
83.1% accuracy for beef and 87.9% for pork, measured as the share of BUY signals where the price rose at least 2% within 8 weeks after the signal, verified over a 5-year window.